Statements made by Donald Trump on April 12, 2026 regarding the Strait of Hormuz can be assessed as a serious geopolitical signal in international energy markets. The use of strong expressions such as imposing a blockade against commercial vessels passing through the Strait, along with claims that such a blockade would begin on April 13, has been perceived as an increase in risk factors in global energy markets. The price of Brent crude oil exceeding 100 USD has further intensified uncertainty in energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz, as a strategic energy transit route, is one of the main corridors through which approximately 20 percent of global oil shipments pass. Therefore, any security risk arising in this area creates systemic vulnerability for the global energy system. As a result, volatility in oil markets increases, price expectations rise, and risk components expand. This trend particularly indicates that expectation-driven decision-making in international trade and energy logistics is strengthening.
For Azerbaijan, rising oil prices create short-term fiscal expansion opportunities by increasing export revenues. In the 2026 state budget, the oil price was projected at around 65 USD per barrel. The current higher market prices create additional revenue potential, enabling increased transfers to the State Oil Fund. These additional revenues will support strengthening fiscal reserves, increasing strategic foreign exchange reserves, and more flexible financing of public investment expenditures. At the same time, the additional resources will provide important advantages for expanding infrastructure projects and sustainably financing social expenditures.
Azerbaijan’s lack of direct dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and its export capabilities through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline constitute a significant strategic advantage in terms of energy security. This pipeline serves as a key infrastructure element ensuring stable access to international markets and contributes to the diversification of export routes. As a result, more balanced risk management in the energy sector and increased resilience to external shocks become possible.
At the same time, such price increases create additional financial opportunities to accelerate diversification processes from a geo-economic perspective. Higher oil revenues will expand investment resources that can be directed toward the development of the non-oil sector. This, in turn, forms an important platform for gradually reducing the economy’s dependence on oil in the long term.
However, prolonged geopolitical tensions may weaken global economic activity and reduce energy demand. In such conditions, the initial increase in prices may gradually weaken or even decline over time, creating additional uncertainty for economies dependent on energy exports.
Overall, statements regarding a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have reactivated crisis risks in international energy markets. For Azerbaijan, this process both expands economic maneuvering opportunities through increased oil revenues and makes it even more important to efficiently channel these resources toward diversification and sustainable economic development.
Ali Salimov